Multicriteria methodology for estimating consumer accepctance of alternative powertrain technologies: an expanded overview

Abstract

The most discussed topic in the sustainability environment is the Climate Change and its irreversible effects across the world that began many years ago, and inside it, the field of fuel consumption and urban mobility, more specifically, cars. Until the end of this century, most fossil fuels like petrol, natural gas and coal will be gone, and an alternative must be found in order to keep the world spinning in an eco-friendly way. That is where the electric and hybrid cars come in, as the only way to achieve independence of petrol in the automotive segment. While the humanity runs to accelerate the fuel transition, maybe it should be asked if the consumers are ready for this, and the best way is doing a research of the consumer’s preference. Based on a related article elaborated by (Sousa et al., 2020) which presents a multicriteria methodology for estimating consumer acceptance of vehicles with alternative powertrain technologies, this dissertation continues the referred research, expanding it for a global vision of the preferences between the different fuel-powered vehicles. The approach is based on the non-compensatory ELECTRE TRI method and run together with the MATRIX program, and compares hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles to conventional models, considering as criteria the ownership costs and restrictions to vehicle use, which apply mainly to electric vehicles. In total, 365 vehicles from four countries (Portugal, Brazil, USA and Germany) and four segments (small, medium, medium SUV and large) will be included, considering internal combustion (ICEV), hybrid electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV), two driver profiles and a baseline scenario for all cases. For statistical significance, a sensitive analysis on the base scenario and three other alternative scenarios is made. It is expected that all powertrain types are competitive between each other, but whatever the results are, technical and political changes are required for disseminating electric mobility in the near future, and the best way to get there.

The most discussed topic in the sustainability environment is the Climate Change and its irreversible effects across the world that began many years ago, and inside it, the field of fuel consumption and urban mobility, more specifically, cars. Until the end of this century, most fossil fuels like petrol, natural gas and coal will be gone, and an alternative must be found in order to keep the world spinning in an eco-friendly way. That is where the electric and hybrid cars come in, as the only way to achieve independence of petrol in the automotive segment. While the humanity runs to accelerate the fuel transition, maybe it should be asked if the consumers are ready for this, and the best way is doing a research of the consumer’s preference. Based on a related article elaborated by (Sousa et al., 2020) which presents a multicriteria methodology for estimating consumer acceptance of vehicles with alternative powertrain technologies, this dissertation continues the referred research, expanding it for a global vision of the preferences between the different fuel-powered vehicles. The approach is based on the non-compensatory ELECTRE TRI method and run together with the MATRIX program, and compares hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles to conventional models, considering as criteria the ownership costs and restrictions to vehicle use, which apply mainly to electric vehicles. In total, 365 vehicles from four countries (Portugal, Brazil, USA and Germany) and four segments (small, medium, medium SUV and large) will be included, considering internal combustion (ICEV), hybrid electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV), two driver profiles and a baseline scenario for all cases. For statistical significance, a sensitive analysis on the base scenario and three other alternative scenarios is made. It is expected that all powertrain types are competitive between each other, but whatever the results are, technical and political changes are required for disseminating electric mobility in the near future, and the best way to get there.